An important system of ocean currents that circulates water around the planet could significantly slow down or even stop completely in just a few decades, according to a shocking new study released Tuesday.
The network is called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream. It’s a series of ocean currents that brings warm water north, and cold water south across the Atlantic Ocean, part of a “global conveyor belt” that impacts weather patterns across North America, Europe, Asia and Africa, according to NOAA.
Researchers in Denmark analyzed sea surface temperatures to determine the strength of the AMOC, using data from 1870 to 2020. The pair, Susanne Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen, and her brother, Peter Ditlevsen of the university’s Niels Bohr Institute, then created a statistical model to analyze early-warning signals that there are problems with the current network.
The authors concluded the AMOC could collapse at any point between now and 2095, even as early as 2025.
Their models rely on “the current scenario of future emissions,” assuming that greenhouse gases would continue to be released into the atmosphere without dramatic steps to reduce them. The new research was published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.