Poland’s president recently declared that the parliamentary election will be held on October 15. This announcement kickstarts the official electoral campaign that has been ongoing for months and is influenced by Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. President Andrzej Duda used X, formerly known as Twitter, to share this information. The election will determine lawmakers for a four-year term, with the party that receives the most votes forming the next government.
The conservative party, Law and Justice, has been the governing party since 2015 and is currently the most popular party according to polls. However, it is not expected to secure an outright majority in parliament. The centrist bloc, Civic Coalition, led by former Polish prime minister and former president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is close behind Law and Justice in popularity. In recent months, support for Tusk’s party has grown, mainly at the expense of other opposition parties.
The election campaign begins amidst rising concerns in Poland about the presence of Russia-linked Wagner mercenaries across the border in Belarus. The tension has also been escalating with Ukraine over grain imports and historical memories of past conflicts. The ruling party aims to be seen as strong on national defense given the current situation. Additional soldiers have been deployed to the Belarus border for increased security, and a military parade is planned for Armed Forces Day next week to showcase modernized defenses.
Poland’s support for Ukraine and acceptance of Ukrainian refugees have garnered international attention, including visits from US President Joe Biden. This support has allowed the government to divert criticism regarding its approach to the judiciary, media, LGBTQ+ rights, and other minority issues. The ruling party has gained popularity among Poles due to its conservative values and increased state assistance for the elderly and families with children.
One of the party’s popular policies is the monthly cash payment of 500 zlotys per child under 18, which will be raised to 800 zlotys in January 2023. However, this policy has its critics, including economists who argue that it has contributed to high inflation rates. The policy has also fueled the growing popularity of Confederation, a far-right political group that opposes the Ukrainization of Poland and has gained support due to criticisms of government policies.
Tensions with Ukraine have further intensified due to disagreements over food imports and historical conflicts. Last week, Poland and Ukraine called in each other’s ambassadors following a statement by an advisor to President Duda, suggesting that Ukraine should display appreciation for Poland’s assistance in the war. The ban on Ukrainian food imports by Poland and other regional countries has caused an oversupply in local markets, leading to reduced prices for farmers. Polish farmers are a significant voter base for the ruling party, and other agricultural groups are competing for their support.
As the election approaches, the ruling party dismissed the health minister, Adam Niedzielski, in response to criticism regarding the disclosure of personal details of a doctor who had criticized a government health policy.