Poll shows majority oppose Silicon Valley billionaire’s California Forever development

A poll of Solano County voters by nationally recognized pollsters FM3 showed that 70 percent would likely note no on California Forever’s initiative measure to amend the Solano County General Plan to create a new community in eastern Solano County if the election were held today.

The data indicates that 61 percent of respondents would definitely vote no, 7 percent would probably vote no, and 2 percent are undecided but lean no. Of respondents, 13 percent said they would definitely vote yes, 10 percent said they would probably vote yes, and 3 percent said they are undecided, but lean yes.

“Poll results highlight the profound public mistrust of the backers of California Forever,” Solano Together said in a press release with the results. “Flannery Associates’ approach has sowed distrust by deploying secretive tactics, keeping their identity elusive, suing farmers, and misleading the public, government officials, and landowners about their intentions. Trust is a major concern for Solano County voters, and these secretive and duplicitous tactics have contributed to strong opposition to this project.”

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Interviews for the poll were conducted from March 4-10, and the firm completed “428 interviews by phone and online with randomly-selected Solano County voters likely to participate in the November 2024 election.” The margin of error was plus/minus 4.9 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.

According to FM3, Solano County voters who have heard of the proposal oppose it by a two to one margin, with 51 percent of those voters saying they strongly oppose it. 79 percent of those who say they have heard “a lot” about the project oppose it.

“Voters are well-aware of the proposal, with more than three-quarters having heard something about it,” the FM3 report reads, “and that familiarity has yielded remarkably broad, strong and durable public opposition – opposition which changes very little after voters are exposed to messages on both sides of the proposal.”

Voters reportedly became more opposed after being exposed to both pro and con arguments about the proposal, FM3 wrote.

“After hearing a series of arguments in favor of the measure, voter support is essentially unchanged – with 27 percent  in favor and 69 percent,” the organization said. “Opposition arguments presented in their wake further reduce support, with more than three quarters (77 percent) ultimately saying they would vote ‘no.’”

California Forever, however, said the company believes that the more voters hear about the plan, the more that they are likely to vote for it.

“This push poll was paid for by the Greenbelt Alliance, an outsider group from San Francisco and Oakland whose policies have directly contributed to the housing and jobs crises that our initiative will help solve,” said campagin manager Matt Rodriguez.”The push poll was designed to manufacture a desired outcome for a small but vocal minority – it doesn’t even test the ballot language that will appear before voters in November.”

The company has worked hard to reach out to Solano County voters in recent months and connect with them on the issues that matter most to them, Rodriguez said. The company has been listening to more than 20,000 Solano County voters, he said, and they continue to provide more information.

RELATED: Billionaire backers of California Forever development accuse opponents of ‘misinformation’

“And we know the more voters learn about our plan, the more they are likely to support the ballot measure this fall. We look forward to submitting in the coming weeks the signatures of tens of thousands of Solano residents who are excited about the future of the county and who are looking forward to casting their votes this November.”

In September of last year, California Forever released its own polling. Eighty one percent of those identified by that survey as parents said they believe most kids in Solano county will not be able to afford to live in their current neighborhood when they grow up, while 13 percent said they will and 6 percent said they did not know. The majority of respondents (39 percent) responded that they think Solano County is headed in a mix of the wrong direction and the right direction. 29 percent said they believe it is headed in the wrong direction, 21 percent said they think it was headed in the right direction, and 11 percent said they do not know.

Several Solano County activists and public officials reaffirmed their rejection of the proposal in the wake of the polling results, according to the release.

“Solano residents have been rightly skeptical about this billionaire boondoggle,” Representative Mike Thompson said. “California Forever’s so-called promises are no more than a bunch of malarkey, and they should give up their ill-fated plans that will never deliver on their pie in the sky fantasies.”

State Senator Bill Dodd also restated his continued opposition following the polling results, describing the project as “ill advised and poorly conceived.”

“Solano County’s residents see through the thin facade painted by California Forever to huge, unaddressed impacts on traffic, water, agriculture, and Travis Air Force Base,” Dodd wrote.