The largely rural constituency is currently part of the Kotputli Behror district, which was carved out of Jaipur and Alwar districts earlier this year. The total number of voters here is about 2.25 lakh, and according to local BJP surveys, the biggest voting blocs are the Gurjars, numbering around 55,000, followed by the Yadavs at 40,000.
Kotputli has traditionally voted for the Congress, including in 2013, when Vasundhara Raje led the BJP to a historic victory, securing 163 out of 200 seats in the Rajasthan assembly. In that election, Kotputli was the only constituency in Jaipur district out of the 19 assembly seats that the Congress won.
For the upcoming election, the Congress has again pinned its hopes on incumbent MLA and minister Rajendra Singh Yadav, who belongs to the second-largest community in the region, but the sentiment on the ground has changed.
Yadav won this seat in 2018 with the support of Saini, Dalit, and Scheduled Tribe mobilisation. He also received the support of Gurjars, who were eager for Sachin Pilot to become the first Gurjar CM. However, this aspiration was left unfulfilled, and local disgruntlement regarding Gehlot’s perceived dominance within the party casts a shadow over Yadav’s prospects in Kotputli.
Adding another layer to the electoral dynamics, farmers in the region have been staging protests for the past nine months against the alleged environmental hazards stemming from the presence of the cement giant, Ultratech. This has become a major election issue here, with many residents reportedly expressing anger at political indifference over their concerns.
Meanwhile, the BJP has fielded Hansraj Patel, a Gurjar candidate and a former BJP rebel from the 2018 election, to secure Gurjar votes. Notably, Mukesh Goyal, the BJP’s 2018 candidate, has now become a rebel, posing challenges for the BJP’s campaign.
However, Gurjar influence is not limited to just Koputli but also several other constituencies where the community holds sway, especially in eastern Rajasthan.
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‘Gurjar vote was for Sachin’
In Kotputli, sitting Congress MLA Rajendra Yadav has held a long-standing grip on the constituency, even during the BJP’s sweeping victory in Rajasthan in 2013. However, Gurjar discontent is growing.
Umrao Gurjar of Sundar Pura village told ThePrint that there was no “kami (flaw)” in Gehlot, but the community felt shortchanged. “Gurjars in this area will vote for the BJP,” he said. “Aspirational youth, attracted by Sachin’s articulate speeches and educated urban persona, are turning towards the BJP now.”
Ardan Gurjar, sitting with other farmers in the village, concurred with Umrao’s viewpoint.
“Gurjars voted for Congress because of Sachin. Still, Mali, Dalit, and Yadav voters will support Congress, but the BJP will garner Gurjar, Rajput, Brahmin, and some Dalit and ST votes,” he predicted. According to Ardan, however, BJP rebel Manoj Goyal could play spoiler if the party did not manage to contain the situation.
Sentiments on the ground were similar in Sawai Madhopur, about 200 km from Kotputli, where the Meena and then Gurjar communities make up the largest share of voters.
The two communities have a history of strategically voting against each other, but in 2018 they both primarily cast their ballot for the Congress.
For the Gurjars, it was mostly due to the Pilot factor, said Dhanjhev Gurjar from Khedi village in Sawai Madhopur.
“Why should we waste our votes on the Congress? We did not vote for a local candidate in 2018, but due to Sachin, we supported the Congress. We thought our issues would be resolved, and cases (against Gurjar leaders) lodged during the Vasundhara Raje era would be withdrawn,” he said. “But Sachin is not a decision-maker. Going with the BJP would be more beneficial for us.”
“Meenas are the dominant caste in east Rajasthan, holding land ownership and influence in the bureaucracy. Gurjars have traditionally had tensions with Meenas and have fought for reservation for decades. However, in 2018, both communities voted for the Congress, partly influenced by Sachin Pilot,” explained Sanjay Lodha, a professor at Mohanlal Sukhadia University and an associate with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
“However, Gurjars now have no love lost for the Congress and could go with the BJP— and if they do, Meenas may vote strategically,” he added.
A headache for the Congress
Over the last years, the bitter feud between Gehlot and Pilot has been the most challenging issue for the Congress high command to manage in Rajasthan.
The most dramatic moment was when Pilot and 18 MLAs staged a rebellion against Gehlot in 2020. The rebellion was quickly snuffed out, even amid speculation that Gehlot had “baited” then-deputy CM Pilot to rebel in order to cement his own position.
The party high command’s efforts to broker a truce between the two seem to have been only partly successful.
Earlier this month, Gehlot reportedly declared himself as the CM candidate this election too, saying that he “wanted to leave the post”, but the post wasn’t leaving him. This was widely perceived to be a dig at Pilot and his own purported CM aspirations.
Pilot, meanwhile, embarked on a five-day Jan Sangarsh Yatra against corruption in his own government in May. During the yatra, he criticised Gehlot for shielding corrupt individuals. He also told reporters that it seemed as if “the CM’s leader is not Sonia Gandhi, but Vasundhara Raje Scindia.”
The ongoing feud between Gehlot and Sachin has disheartened Gurjar voters, potentially opening the door for the BJP to court this community. While Priyanka Gandhi and Sachin Pilot have addressed rallies in the Gurjar belt to secure their support, the BJP is redoubling its efforts in this direction too.
BJP’s Gurjar push
In 2018, one key factor that led to the defeat of the BJP in Rajasthan was the significant Gurjar vote, which went overwhelmingly in favour of the Congress. This shift in Gurjar support played a crucial role in the Congress winning 35 out of 39 seats in the Gurjar-Meena-dominated east-central region of Rajasthan, while the BJP trailed way behind with just three seats.
Overall, the Gurjars constitute around 7 percent of the electorate in Rajasthan, holding sway in 40 assembly constituencies. In the 2018 elections, the Congress fielded 11 Gurjar candidates, and eight of them emerged victorious. In contrast, all eight of the BJP’s Gurjar candidates lost.
In the upcoming election, the BJP has nominated five Gurjar candidates, while the Congress has put forward four from the community.
One of the BJP’s Gurjar candidates is Vijay Bainsla— the son of Kirodi Lal Bainsla, who led Gurjar protests for reservation during the end of Vasundhara Raje’s tenure in 2008. Vijay Bainsla is contesting from Tonk district’s Deoli-Uniara constituency.
Hansraj Patel is another Gurjar candidate fielded by the BJP, contesting from Kotputli, and Uday Lal Bhadana is running for the Mandal assembly seat in Bhilwara district.
Notably, in January, Prime Minister Modi visited Bhilwara’s Devnarayan temple, which draws many Gurjar devotees. Earlier this month, Congress’s Priyanka Gandhi claimed that the PM had donated only Rs 21 to this temple, earning her a show-cause notice from the Election Commission after the BJP raised an objection.
The BJP has also made organisational changes this year to strengthen its Gurjar outreach. Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria, a Gurjar and Lok Sabha MP from Sawai Madhopur Tonk, was appointed as the vice president of the Rajasthan unit, Alka Gurjar was made national secretary, and Neelam Gurjar was appointed as the state secretary in Dausa, which has a significant Gurjar population, and Ankit Gurjar Chechi was made the BJP Youth Morcha president in the state.
To sway Gurjar voters in favour of the BJP, several leaders from the community have been deployed in Rajasthan. UP Rajya Sabha MP and Gurjar leader Surendra Nagar has been tasked with mobilising Gurjars in the eastern region, while Union minister Krishan Pal Gurjar has been deployed in Sawai Madhopur district.
Delhi MP Ramesh Bidhuri, who recently sparked controversy after making communal remarks against BSP MP Danish Ali in Parliament, has been appointed as the in-charge of Tonk district.
There is speculation that Bidhuri’s appointment in Sachin Pilot’s stronghold, Tonk, is aimed at polarising the election along Hindu-Muslim lines. The Muslim population of Tonk district is 10.77 percent, while it is 47.18 percent in Tonk city.
Banking on ‘broken promises’
The BJP is highlighting the Sachin Pilot issue to drum up support among the Gurjars. At a public meeting in Bharatpur this month, for example, Sawai Madhopur MP Jaunapuria claimed that Sachin Pilot had “no chance of becoming Chief Minister since Gehlot would never allow it” and urged Gurjars to vote for the BJP.
Neelam Gurjar, Rajasthan BJP secretary, told ThePrint that the Gehlot government did not “keep its promises” to the people and the party was highlighting this.
“Crime and corruption are widespread, and crimes against women are on the rise. The Gurjar community feels cheated by voting for Congress. In this election, the BJP is hopeful that every section of society will vote for the party,” she said.
Congress leader Himmat Singh Gurjar, who has campaigned in the past for Sachin’s late father Rajesh Pilot, told ThePrint that he too felt that the Gurjar vote for the party was on uncertain ground in some seats.
“The Congress will get the Gurjar vote where it has fielded a Gurjar candidate. But in other seats, 25-30 percent of the Gurjar vote will switch to the BJP,” he said. “However, we will convince Gurjar voters in our campaign that voting for the BJP will not empower Sachin, it will lower his prestige. We are also telling them that it was the BJP under Vasundhara’s regime that filed cases against Gurjars and 70 people lost their lives.”
However, Narain Bareth, a former professor at Rajasthan University, told ThePrint that despite the 2008 Gurjar agitation and lives lost, the community voted for Vasundhara Raje in 2013. “So, Gurjars traditionally vote for the BJP, except in 2018,” he said.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
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