- Russia is drafting hundreds of thousands of recruits to launch major assaults in Ukraine.
- But it’s not producing enough weapons to equip them all, per military experts.
- The Institute for the Study of War said that Russia likely can’t sustain a greater mobilization.
Russia isn’t making enough weapons to arm the potential massive uptick in troops being drafted to fight in Ukraine, according to military experts.
The Institute for the Study of War drew its assessment in an intelligence update on Sunday, comparing comments and figures shared by military analysts as well as officials.
Russia’s reserves — whether strategic or operational — are not ready for combat, despite a widespread belief among Russian commanders that they are “bottomless barrels,” Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said in a Telegram post on Sunday, per the ISW.
While Russia can produce about 250-300 “new and thoroughly modernized” tanks every year — enough to cover its battlefield losses — it cannot generate enough material to outfit substantial reserve personnel in the event of a crisis, Mashovets said, per the ISW.
In December, Janis Garisons, state secretary to Latvia’s Ministry of Defence, said that Russia can “produce and repair” roughly 100 to 150 tanks a month, per the US-based think tank.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence made a similar assessment in January.
Despite this, Russia’s military-industrial complex would likely be unable to sustain a greater mobilization of personnel, the ISW said.
According to Mashovets, there are about 60,000-62,000 personnel in Russian reserve units, but the country has only equipped a third of these with weapons and equipment.
Russia’s military production rates would need to grow significantly to support more extensive offensive operations that would require the deployment of additional personnel, the ISW said.
While Russia would be in a position to increase production if it kept up its military campaign this year, even this would probably not be enough to support a large number of conscripts or reservists, it added.
This gap could be significant for the outcome of the war.
Russia has been recruiting hundreds of thousands of often poorly-trained soldiers to intensify “meat wave” assaults on the front lines in Ukraine, according to reports.
However, this has come at a considerable cost to Russia’s army, with major losses on the front lines.
For the most part, these attacks have also failed to make significant breakthroughs or advances.