At around 40 percent, Indian students form the largest group of international students in Canada.
As diplomatic ties between India and Canada continue to hit new lows with both countries issuing advisories for their respective citizens and New Delhi temporarily suspending visas for Canadian nationals, there is one section of the society which is likely to bear the brunt of this confrontation– the millions of Indian students who study in various institutions across the north American nation.
With that being said, India, however, can also weaponise this fact to hit Canada where it the hurts most, its economy. If strained ties between the two nations continue the downward spiral and push comes to shove, India can bar its students from travelling to Canada, thus potentially halting the inflow of billions of dollars in student fees and expenses.
As per available data furnished by Canadian government, Canada is home to around 8 lakh international students with 40 percent of them being Indians, forming the largest group of student diaspora in the country.
Indian students backbone of Canada’s private college system
Should ties between the two nations deteriorate further and India decides to halt its students from studying in Canada, it can hit Canada right where it hurts the most. With the departure of Indian students, even the well-funded public universities in the country could collapse, experts believe.
Daksh Panwar, an independent Indian-Canadian journalist, noted that international students add around 30 billion dollars to Canada’s economy each year and with majority of them being Indians, it could rattle Canadian economy, should New Delhi choose to go to that extent.
“International students bring in 30 billion dollars to the Canadian economy each year, it could have a knocking impact on other sectors as well. In housing, for example, we are talking about widespread mortgage defaults in major metros — Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver Area, Calgary — where students are present in large numbers. They make up a substantial chunk of the population renting houses, subsidising homeowners’ mortgages at a time when interest rates are sky high,” Daksh said, according to an India Today report.
The impact this could have on the Canadian economy is backed by facts and figures, Daksh believes as the fees paid by Indian students are three to five times higher than what private colleges charge Canadian citizens. Thus, the thriving private college ecosystem of Canada, which is mostly funded by Indian students, is likely to collapse if India decides to stop the outflow of its students.
In a 2021 report, Canada’s Auditor-General Bonnie Lysyk had flagged the risk to the Canadian economy due to the over-reliance on funds from international students.
In her report, Lysyk stressed that the risks were beyond the control of the Canadian government and the country’s revenue could face a massive and sudden strike if for some reason students from some countries stopped coming into Canada.
As per records, in 2022, out of 5.5 lakh international students in Canada, 2.26 lakh were from India while 3.2 lakh Indian nationals were staying in the country on student visas.
Thus it is clear that aside from being a pillar of the private college system in Canada, the international students also boost it’s real estate market besides also helping the Canadian government to maintain the $15/hour minimum wage as the students do part-time low-wage jobs to fund their studies.
“International students fill low-wage labour jobs, in hospitality, retail and many other sectors. We are looking at an acute labour shortage if Indian students stop coming to Canada,” Daksh Tanwar believes
The situation bears an uncanny similarity with the 2015 diplomatic standoff between Canada and Saudi Arabia after the Arab nation ordered more that 15,000 of its students to leave Canada, costing the Canadian economy hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
The dispute had arisen following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
While Saudi Arabia was the sixth-biggest source of long-term international students in Canada with 11,650 students in 2015, India is the largest group in 2022 with number of students being exponentially higher. Imagine the impact this would have on Canada’s economy if the outflow stops.
The departure of Saudi students had brought about the insolvency of Laurentian University in Canada, the exodus of Indian students would in fact have far worse consequences for Ottawa.
Strained ties
Bilateral relations between India and Canada took a nosedive after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday alleged that “Indian agents” were behind the shooting of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
On Thursday, visa services provider BLS International has suspended Indian visa services in Canada with immediate effect. BLS International Services Limited is an Indian outsourcing service provider for government and diplomatic missions worldwide. The company manages visa, passport, consular, attestation and citizen services.
“Due to operation reasons, with immediate effect i.e. September 21, 2023, Indian visa services in Canada have been suspended till further notice,” the company informed stock exchanges in a filing on Thursday.
Nijjar, chief of banned Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF) and a “designated terrorist” was killed in a targeted shooting at British Columbia in Canada’s Surrey in June 2018.
India has rejected the allegations by the Trudeau administration, terming them “absurd” and “motivated”.
“We have seen and reject the statement of the Canadian Prime Minister in their Parliament, as also the statement by their Foreign Minister. Allegations of Government of India’s involvement in any act of violence in Canada are absurd and motivated,” MEA had said in a statement.
“Similar allegations were made by the Canadian Prime Minister to our Prime Minister and were completely rejected. We are a democratic polity with a strong commitment to the rule of law,” it added.
India on Tuesday expelled a senior Canadian diplomat in a reciprocal move to Canada expelling a senior Indian diplomat in light of the claim of New Delhi’s involvement in the killing of the wanted separatist leader.
The MEA had said that the Canadian diplomat was asked to leave India within the next five days.