With the advent of AVs, the automotive sector will undergo a renaissance. Our estimates, based on the analyses and evaluation of several academic and industry reports, suggest that autonomous driving systems could generate $450 to $600 billion in revenue by 2035 globally. As India aspires to attain a leadership position in terms of its economy and technological prowess, it must endeavour to grab a big chunk of the global AV pie. The projected revenue is not merely a financial milestone but represents a transformative tide that will elevate the entire automotive industry and, by extension, the national economy.
A much-anticipated technological advancement, AVs carry profound social implications. Their significance is underscored by their widespread impact, surpassing the excitement generated by any other transportation technology in recent history. As we witness a competitive surge in AV development, a critical examination of their socio-economic implications becomes imperative.
A train station inside Maruti’s car factory: What it does and how
In this article, we address the biggest elephant in the room – the impact of AVs on labour and employment. The article, while not all-encompassing, attempts to delve into the multifaceted impact stemming from the evolution of AVs.
If we look at driving as a service, the current setup is such that for a fixed quality of service, the expectation is to pay incremental wages. Even in such a setup, drivers’ earnings are not sustainable and supply of drivers is becoming increasingly scarce. As part of our research, we conducted an interview-based survey to understand the supply side of the professional drivers’ job market. I find two questions from the study highly relevant to the topic in discussion – one, are the drivers happy with the earnings and the quality of life it affords and two, if they would encourage their next generations (daughters and sons) to take up driving as a profession? High majority provided completely dissatisfied or partially dissatisfied as the answer to first question whereas almost the entire set of respondents answered with a negative to the second question. The clear indication is that there is going to be a shortage in supply of trained and professional drivers in India in the future. Driving is not an aspirational job and is dying, fast.
As the evolution of AI-driven technology progresses, the availability and supply of required skill sets will also transform accordingly. This transformation will lead to the redesign of training methods and curriculum to align with job market. It is anticipated that the next generation of workforce will be fluidic in nature with high degree of semi-digital and semi-technical skills, well in line with the advancements in technology.
Many predict that the long-term consequences for the transportation labour force are likely to be negative, given that the economic rationale for driverless vehicles is to reduce labour costs and increase safety.
The apprehensions surrounding the impact of AVs on employment echo historical concerns during the advent of computers. When computers emerged, there were widespread fears that the adoption of ‘the computer’ would lead to a jobless future, eliminating various roles. However, reality unfolded differently. While certain manual and repetitive tasks became ‘computerised’, the integration of computers created new jobs and transformed existing ones. In fact, in India, an entire sector got created as a result – the development and boom of the ITeS sector in India is direct evidence. The workforce adapted by acquiring digital skills, and industries evolved to incorporate technology into their operations.
Similarly, as AVs become prevalent, the shift in transportation employment dynamics may not necessarily result in widespread job loss. Rather, it prompts a transformation, demanding a workforce with different skills and roles. This includes roles in artificial intelligence, software engineering, cybersecurity, data analytics, research and development, software engineering, telematic operations, and so on.
Several other areas may experience a positive impact from AVs, but predicting it accurately would be as blinding as someone in 1923 predicting the impact of modern telecommunications on human society.
In conclusion, the advent of AVs not only reshapes the future of transportation but also propels us into a new era of employment dynamics. While acknowledging concerns about potential shifts in traditional driving-related roles, it is crucial to emphasize the substantial opportunities AVs bring to our workforce.
As we navigate the nuanced landscape of AI and AV-driven transformation, it is imperative for, policymakers, automakers, technology companies, social scientists, media and other stakeholders to proactively engage in understanding and addressing the complexities, leveraging this once-in-a-century technological shift to usher in a future that combines innovation, economic growth, and societal benefit.
Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the original author and do not represent any of The Times Group or its employees.