By Jovan Buha, Law Murray and Anthony Slater
You can make a convincing argument that the Pacific Division is the NBA’s best. The Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers all reached the eight-team Western Conference playoffs last season, and the division also features some of the league’s most recognizable superstars.
Which team made the best offseason move? Which team made the riskiest move? And which team has the best chance to win the NBA title in the season ahead?
To break down the Pacific’s offseason and look ahead to the 2023-24 regular season, The Athletic has assembled three of its writers who cover the division’s teams: Jovan Buha, Law Murray and Anthony Slater.
OTHER DIVISION PREVIEWS: Atlantic | Central | Southeast | Southwest | Northwest
What was the best offseason move — a trade, a free-agent signing, firing or hiring — within the division?
Jovan Buha: The Suns’ trade for Bradley Beal. I think the consensus underestimates how dominant a team built around a trio of stars with plus-shooting capabilities can be — think the mid-2010s Cavs, late 2010s Warriors and early 2020s Nets. Even if the Suns’ roster has depth and defensive issues, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Beal are elite scorers and shooters who can thrive on and off the ball.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that trio scores at least 120 points per 100 possessions together. Yes, the Suns don’t have a traditional point guard, but they have multiple elite shot-creators and quality spot-up threats flanking them. Beal is properly slotted as a third option on a contender and is going to torture opponents’ third-best perimeter defenders.
The offense is going to be unstoppable, and I think the defense will be passable with new head coach Frank Vogel masterminding that side of the floor. I like several other moves in the division — including the Lakers retaining their core and adding shooters Taurean Prince and Gabe Vincent, and the Warriors trading Jordan Poole for Chris Paul — but none come close to Phoenix’s makeover.
Law Murray: I’m not going to overthink this one. The Phoenix Suns gave up the 38-year-old Paul, several first-round pick swaps and several second-round picks to acquire Beal, a three-time All-Star, from the Washington Wizards. They took advantage of Beal’s no-trade clause, which allowed him to choose his destination.
Beal is 30 and hasn’t played in more than 60 games since the 2018-19 season, but his ability to generate free throws represents a massive improvement next to Booker in Phoenix’s backcourt. The Suns don’t even have to be that imaginative to be one of the best offenses in the league with Beal, Booker and Durant.
Anthony Slater: It’s Beal. The Suns rearranged a core that wasn’t working, obtained an All-Star and didn’t pay a premium price to get him. The Kings, Clippers and Lakers didn’t do anything near as drastic, though the Clippers’ chase of James Harden could eventually change that.
But, for some variety, let’s quickly talk about the second domino of that Beal trade: It cleared the way for the Warriors to flip Poole for Paul. The trade certainly qualifies for our next question (a move that could backfire!), but there is also a potential diamond reward at the end of the risky rainbow. If Paul stays healthy and fixes the Warriors’ perpetual problem in non-Curry minutes, his arrival has the chance to solidify a weakness and nudge the Warriors back into contention.
If this Golden State core can somehow sneak in a fifth title — and if Paul is even a partial reason for it — the move morphs from questionable into a home run. If Paul and the Warriors fade into the sunset, Golden State will have given up Poole and a future protected first-round pick for an unobtainable pipe dream.
The Phoenix Suns’ addition of Bradley Beal has the potential to shake up the Pacific Division — and the Western Conference’s postseason landscape. (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
Which offseason move has the strongest potential to backfire?
Buha: The Suns flipping Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkić, Grayson Allen and Nasir Little in the Damian Lillard deal. Allen and Little should feature prominently in the Suns’ rotation, though I already felt their perimeter depth was underrated with Eric Gordon, Keita Bates-Diop (one of the sleeper signings of the summer), Josh Okogie and Yuta Wanabe. Still, Allen and Little will help. The Suns are certainly deeper.
But going from Ayton to Nurkić is a notable downgrade on both ends of the floor. Nurkić didn’t look like a starter last season. At this point, he’s probably better suited for a backup role. Perhaps the Suns start Drew Eubanks, Nurkić’s backup last season in Portland. Regardless, I don’t have much confidence in their center rotation, and they don’t have an alternative other than playing Durant at the five, which comes with defensive concerns.
I understand there were basketball and non-basketball reasons for trading Ayton. The situation was clearly beyond repair. I just think they sold low and will be at a major talent disadvantage in the middle when facing other West heavyweights like the Nuggets (Nikola Jokić) and Lakers (Anthony Davis).
Murray: The list of 39-year-old point guards playing a major role in the postseason is not long. Chris Paul is ye almighty Point God, but his body has caused him to miss postseason games long before he reached his late 30s, and Golden State traded a 24-year-old, durable 20-point scorer, Poole, to acquire Paul.
The 2023 postseason suggested that the Warriors needed to move on from Poole, and Paul certainly upgrades Golden State on both ends of the floor in a vacuum. But Paul is at an age where the cliff approaches, while Poole was a contributor to Golden State’s 2022 championship and is set for the best years of his career going forward. The Paul trade could be Golden State’s version of the 2021 Lakers’ trade that sent Kyle Kuzma and others to Washington to acquire Russell Westbrook, though the Warriors won’t be nearly as dysfunctional as those Lakers teams.
Slater: We’ve already detailed the Paul risk, so let me go off the board a little bit. How about a decision against making a certain move? Unless circumstances have changed, the Clippers haven’t upped their offer enough to get Harden from the Sixers. Maybe it’s an impossible task with Daryl Morey on the other side of the phone. Maybe the waiting game will lead to Harden on a discount, allowing the Clippers to keep Terance Mann. But the Heat just lost out on Damian Lillard without ever putting their grandest offer on the table. If that happens to the Clippers, there’s a chance it will be the difference in winning a title or not.
Which player in the Pacific is most likely to have a breakout season?
Buha: This is the toughest question we’re being asked here. All five teams are veteran-laden with ambitious playoff aspirations, so they’re not exactly dripping in young talent. I’m honestly tempted to pick no one. Austin Reaves has broken out.
I think Keegan Murray is going to improve, but the Kings bolstered their perimeter depth, re-signed Harrison Barnes to a large contract and will still run their offense through De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, so I expect Murray to be in a similar role to last season. Beyond him, I think Jonathan Kuminga is the best bet, especially after an impressive preseason in which he’s ranked among the league leaders in scoring and seems to finally be finding his niche within the Warriors’ system. At the same time, are we sure he’s earned Steve Kerr‘s trust? I’m not.
I’ll throw out two dark horse candidates: Mann, whom the Clippers apparently refuse to trade, and Max Christie, who dominated summer league and appears ready for a bigger role with the Lakers.
Murray: I’m eager to see how Murray builds on the first season in league history with a rookie making more than 200 3s. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Sacramento’s offense, the most efficient in the league last season, but it can get even better if Murray takes a step forward. Don’t be surprised if Murray generates more free throws, rebounds and defensive plays, especially if the Kings aren’t as durable as they were a season ago.
Slater: Murray is a great choice. The Kings kept their core stable this summer in part because the front office believes a Murray leap can bump them into the next level of contention. He has to show more defensively, though. The Suns and Clippers have established rotations. Reaves is too mainstream a pick at this point. He’s already broken out.
Kuminga is an obvious pick. He’s a 6-foot-8, young, athletic wing on an old, short, unathletic Warriors team. He must gain Kerr’s trust, which has been elusive, but through Wednesday’s exhibitions, he led the NBA in total preseason points. Everyone behind the scenes is glowing about him. Paul has apparently had an impact, and Kuminga will get second-unit minutes as Paul spoon-feeds him out of the pick-and-roll. A third-season leap is certainly possible.
If Keegan Murray builds on his impressive rookie season, the Sacramento Kings may take an additional leap forward this season. (Bob Frid / USA Today)
Which player, coach or executive in the division has the most to prove?
Buha: The Clippers’ front office, led by Lawrence Frank, and, to a lesser extent, superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, who are eligible for extensions. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have already won a title together and are coming off a conference finals appearance. The Suns’ Big Three is in its first season together under a new coaching staff — they have a two-year window at least. The Warriors’ core is aging, but they’ve proved more than enough with four titles. The Kings are still in the honeymoon phase of their ascent.
Which brings us back to the Clippers: This feels like it could be the last dance for them if they don’t make a deep playoff run, and even that might not be enough. I refrained from including Steve Ballmer in the group because he’s done just about everything imaginable to try to build a contender, spending deep into the luxury tax and maximizing every financial resource possible, including overpaying to retain important staff members that other organizations have tried to poach. It’s now or never, which makes the potential Harden trade, and all of the immense ramifications that could come from such a gamble, so fascinating.
Murray: I’m going with Davis here, an NBA champion and 75th Anniversary Team selection who has to re-establish himself as a consistent, dominant force over the course of a full season. Davis is 30 now, and he hasn’t been an All-Star selection the last two seasons or an All-NBA selection in the last three.
He’s played in more than 56 games just once in the last five seasons. Despite that, he recently signed a three-year, $177 million max-contract extension with the Lakers. Davis’ availability, willingness to defend centers and shooting competence are major swing factors for a Lakers team that can probably survive an extended absence from LeBron, but not from Davis.
Slater: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Lawrence Frank and that entire Clippers operation. LeBron and AD have already won a title with the Lakers. The Warriors core has checked that box four times. The Kings are early in their growth arc. The Suns have gone all-in, but this feels like the first of a few cracks for the Durant-Booker-Beal core. That is why I vote for the Clippers. The failures of this Kawhi-George era have piled up, and it feels like, of the division’s five teams, a first-round flameout would hit hardest and lead to more radical changes for this franchise. Ballmer has the money to get creative, if he’s given reason to do it.
Who’ll finish first, second, third, fourth and fifth in the regular-season Pacific standings?
Buha: This is the NBA’s best division, and it’s not close. All five teams made the playoffs last season and project to do so again. I have the same ranking for the regular season and championship contention: 1. Suns, 2. Lakers, 3. Warriors, 4. Clippers and 5. Kings. I was tempted to flip the Warriors and Clippers in the title rankings, but I want to see at least a half-season of good health for the Clippers before fully buying back in. That said, the championship ingredients are still there and I don’t have them that far behind my Tier 1 contenders (Denver, Boston, Milwaukee, Phoenix and the Lakers, loosely in that order).
Also, I’m out on the Kings, and am prepared to have egg on my face if I’m wrong. They won 48 games last season with some of the best health in the league. I think they’ll improve with better continuity and depth, but they’re also due for injury regression, which could offset that progress and knock them down to the mid- or even low-40s in wins. I have Denver, Phoenix, the Lakers, Golden State, the Clippers and Memphis easily ahead of them. Then, it’s close with Dallas, Oklahoma City and Minnesota.
Murray: This is the most accomplished division in the NBA, with all five teams making the playoffs and having good reason to believe they will win a playoff series. Naturally, at least one of these teams will fall short of the conference semifinals, and none of them won a game after the second round last season. I’ll go with the Suns winning the division, followed by the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and Kings.
The Clippers are the most interesting team in the division because they have the pieces to make their deepest run and the chips to be relevant in whatever trade market develops this winter. But the Clippers’ floor is arguably lower than it has ever been as well, just because of the notorious availability issues of George and Leonard and the understanding that no one is guaranteed to be a part of this team at this time next year, when Intuit Dome opens. Few teams have a greater variance than the Clippers in 2023-24.
Slater: I’m splitting my rankings into two parts. This is my regular-season standings prediction: Kings, Lakers, Warriors, Suns and Clippers, congested similarly to a season ago. All five made the playoffs. Sacramento’s 48 victories won the division. The Lakers finished last with 43 and then went further in the playoffs than the other four. Which brings me to the second ranking.
True contention: Lakers, Warriors, Suns, Clippers, Kings. I trust championship experience at the highest level. Four of these teams have a former Finals MVP: LeBron, Steph Curry, Durant, Kawhi. I trust Kawhi’s health less than the other three. I predict the Lakers, Warriors and Suns as the three other conference semifinalists with the Nuggets.
(Top photo of LeBron James and Steph Curry: Kyle Terada / USA Today)