The NHL is less than three weeks from the trade deadline, which means speculation is ramping up and the rumor mill is churning.
Colorado has a couple of obvious places on the roster where an addition could help. The Avalanche’s biggest issue is at center behind Nathan MacKinnon, where the Avs either need Ryan Johansen to rediscover a previous level or find someone else to help Ross Colton in those No. 2/3 center spots. A backup goaltender to spell Alexandar Georgiev, who continues to pace the league in goalie starts, wouldn’t hurt either.
The problem: The Avs don’t have much financial flexibility.
They do have a few intriguing prospects, but they don’t have a second- or third-round pick in 2024 or a second in 2025 (the firsts are available).
They also have two young defensemen on the NHL roster — Bo Byram and Samuel Girard — who would likely be very attractive to other clubs, but the pros and cons of moving one of them could fill up another Sunday journal.
First, let’s start with a primer for where the Avalanche stands and what the club can do between now and the deadline. The Avs have no cap space. They have operated well over the league’s salary-cap ceiling all season, with $9 million in long-term injury relief available through the Gabe Landeskog and Pavel Francouz contracts.
The Avs currently have $1.242 million of that LTIR relief space available, per Cap Friendly. The key point here is that LTIR relief does not work like regular cap space.
Cap space is re-counted every day, and teams below the ceiling can save up more space for later in the year. When a team with cap space trades for a player, they only have to absorb the pro-rated amount said player is due the rest of the season. This is how a team with minimal cap space can still add a player with a bigger cap hit.
It’s more straightforward with LTIR teams. The Avs cannot add more than $1.242 million in full-season cap hits. If they wanted to trade for a player with a $5.242 million cap hit, $4 million would have to come off the current roster to make it work. If someone suggests the Avs could trade for an NHL roster player whose cap hit is more than $1.242 million with just draft picks or non-roster prospects as the return, that’s not a legal transaction.
Colorado could add to its LTIR relief by placing a player or two on waivers and sending them to the Eagles if they clear. The obvious candidates would be Caleb Jones (who has probably played well enough to get claimed) and Kurtis MacDermid.
But that would also mean going down to 21 or even 20 players on the roster, which could lead to playing with a compromised roster anytime someone has a minor injury or illness the rest of the season. Jones in particular is also an insurance policy the club is almost certainly going to need in the playoffs.
So what are some options for the Avs?
The goalies
If we set the parameters at potentially available, fitting with the Avs’ financial restrictions but still performing better than Ivan Prosvetov and Justus Annunen, the pickings are slim.
Who could the Avalanche add without moving a roster player? Either Sharks goaltender, Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75 million, UFA) or MacKenzie Blackwood ($2.35 million, one more year) could work if San Jose ate half. The Sharks are short on retention slots, but including MacDermid would make the money work.
Both San Jose goalies have been on the plus side of goals saved above expected this season. Kahkonen in particular grades out well by a metric Jared Bednar has cited publicly on multiple occasions. Another option could be Pittsburgh’s Alex Nedeljkovic ($1.5 million, UFA), who is having a nice year as the Penguins’ backup. Washington’s Charlie Lindgren ($1.1 million, one more year) has been the Capitals’ MVP, but the team would likely need to give up the playoff chase to make him available.
The big name available might be Marc-Andre Fleury, who The Athletic reported will only consider waiving his no-movement clause if the Wild fall out of playoff contention. Fleury is in the final year of his contract ($3.5 million). It’s important to note that his goals saved above expected is worse than all three goalies the Avs have used this season.
For the Avs to add Fleury, someone has to come off the NHL roster. And whoever that is would likely create another hole. As an example, if the Avs included Johansen ($4 million this year and next) and got the Wild to eat half of Fleury’s cap hit, that would create $2.25 million in new LTIR relief. It would also likely cost the Avs an extra asset or two to move Johansen’s contract … and now the need for a No. 2 center is even greater.
The short-term centers
Two rental centers have already been traded, and the price for both Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan was steep. The rest of the UFA center market looks … thin.
Anaheim’s Adam Henrique ($5.825 million) is probably the best available, and with that comes an issue. Several other teams are likely to turn this into a bidding war. If Monahan was worth a first-round pick, Henrique at half his cap hit will likely cost that and more.
Is Calgary’s Mikael Backlund ($5.35 million) enough of an upgrade over Johansen to justify what it could cost to acquire him and either the extra asset or two to include Johansen in the deal? Or whatever the cost would be to fill the other hole this would create? Backlund does not seem like the caliber of player the Avs should be comfortable using one of their top trade chips to add.
Seattle’s Alex Wenneberg ($4.5 million) could be an underrated addition, but the Kraken are also on the edge of the playoffs. One intriguing, low-cost name could be Nashville’s Tommy Novak ($800,000), who has 27 points (same as Backlund) but at a fraction of the cap hit. Novak might not solve the big issue, but he would improve the depth at the club’s thinnest position.
Most of the other UFA centers, including Philadelphia’s Scott Laughton and Washington’s Nic Dowd, look more like fourth-line/depth guys on a contender.
The long-term centers
Some of the best trades the Avs have made in recent years have been for pending restricted free agents, though those deals typically happen in the offseason. Devon Toews, Andre Burakovsky, Alexandar Georgiev, and this past summer Colton and Fredrik Olofsson — all were RFAs when the Avalanche traded for them.
The best RFA whose name has been circulated in the NHL rumor mill is Buffalo’s Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5 million), who would be a similar addition to Colton — a guy who has played center in the past but is spending a lot of time on the wing. He’s an intriguing player who has found himself at the NHL level over the past two seasons, but would the Avs part with one of their young defensemen to make the deal work? And how much would Mittelstadt cost to keep beyond this season?
Could the Flyers still entertain moving Morgan Frost ($2.1 million, one more year), who has played well of late after a rocky start to the year?
The home run move for the Avs — a young, cost-controlled guy who could be a No. 1B/2 center like Nazem Kadri was two years ago — is Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25 million, five more years). Prying him away would likely cost several premium assets, and the Wild might still hang up the phone after fair offers.
Another option is for the Avs to just try and add another top-nine wing, and build the best group of players they can without someone who is producing like a traditional No. 2 center. And maybe Johansen still finds his way back to being that player later this season.
The Avs also have to consider the financial ramifications of Landeskog’s $7 million returning to the ledger next season, plus Toews’ raise of more than $3 million kicks in as well. And then a raise for Mikko Rantanen the following season.
Whatever the Avs try to do in the next three weeks, it won’t be easy.
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