Chennai: It is a seemingly win-win situation for BJP and O. Panneerselvam (OPS) to come together for the Lok Sabha polls as the ousted AIADMK leader can get a lifeline in Tamil Nadu politics whereas a partnership could bring several incremental benefits to the former, said political commentators.
In the second week of February, BJP chief J.P. Nadda visited Chennai before which OPS himself said that alliance talks with the Tamil Nadu BJP are finalised. He went on to say that a ‘mega alliance’ would be formed to make Narendra Modi the prime minister again.
Although Nadda didn’t meet any political leaders, political analysts said that there was possibly some kind of understanding between the BJP and OPS ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
On his part, BJP spokesperson Narayan Thirupathy said that the party will discuss and “inform everyone when we finalise alliances”. The party had registered 7.17 percent vote share in the 2022 civic polls, which it contested solo.
Former journalist and writer Maalan Narayanan asserted that OPS has “no other option”. “Because both the EC and court have decided in favour of EPS. The only option available for him is to float a party. But then he has to start from scratch. So for his political survival, he is forming an alliance with the BJP and the BJP seems to be inclined,” he said.
Narayanan opined that OPS, who is not strong enough at present, should join hands with expelled Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam chief T.T.V Dhinakaran and V.K. Sasikala, who were also expelled from the AIADMK, and would be able to polarise Thevar and Nadar votes in the southern region in the BJP’s favour.
In the 2021 state polls, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies won 159 of 234 seats, the NDA won 75 of which 66 were AIADMK candidates and four of the BJP. The DMK, the AIADMK and the BJP had a vote share of 37-plus percent, 33-plus percent and 2-plus percent, respectively.
Chosen by Amma, facing existential crisis
A close aide of former chief minister J. Jayalalithaa, OPS helmed the state thrice from September 2001 to March 2002 when she was convicted in the Tamil Nadu Small Industries Corporation land acquisition case, September 2014 to May 2015 when the AIADMK supremo was convicted for disproportionate assets, and following her death in December 2016.
As leadership struggles grew after Jayalalithaa’s death, the AIADMK in 2017 adopted a dual leadership model with OPS acting as the co-ordinator and Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) becoming the co-coordinator.
Five years on, party cadres came out against this system and a general council meeting named EPS the general secretary. OPS was expelled for ‘anti-party activities.’ He approached the Madras High Court against the expulsion, but it dismissed OPS’s plea last year.
In another appeal, the court passed an interim injunction restraining OPS from using the party symbol, flag and official letterhead. An appeal against this order was dismissed in January 2024.
“OPS is someone who has been consistently projected by Amma as her successor. He was shown as the original successor due to his loyalty,” said Subburathinam A from the OPS camp.
Subburathinam said the BJP has always been supportive of the party during the infights.
EPS breaking the alliance with the BJP would not affect the OPS camp as the latter never left the alliance, he said. “Only EPS did.” OPS is busy with the ongoing assembly session and talks will gather momentum after the Budget session, he added.
The BJP played a crucial role when OPS and EPS named different AIADMK candidates for the Erode bypolls held in February last year. As both the rivals chose their loyalists, the BJP, then an ally of the AIADMK, held talks and favoured the EPS candidate.
Expressing confidence that OPS will play a crucial role, Subburathinam said the NDA will become the second position behind the DMK coalition.
“In my personal opinion, we will be getting around 10 LS seats. Of the 10, we will be in a position to win at least five to six, like Theni, Sivagangai, Ramnathapuram, Tirunelveli, Thanjavur, that are bastions of OPS.”
But, DMK’s Theni functionary Thanga Tamil Selvan said OPS has no political future as he lost the trust of the people. Selvan said OPS’s shifts to BJP have caused confusion among voters, adding that the caste angle will not work.
Talking about OPS joining hands with the BJP, AIADMK former IT wing head K. Swaminathan said the senior leader has no other options. “What options does he have other than aligning with the BJP? All the options he had were exhausted.”
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Electoral significance
Hailing from Theni district, OPS, who is from the Thevar community, has never lost in assembly elections. The BJP will be hoping that OPS, Dhinakaran and Sasikala can consolidate Thevar votes.
According to Narayanan, OPS would have no difficulty in speaking the language of BJP as his community has always been pro-Hinduism.
“OPS always appears with a tilak on his forehead. He will not have difficulties in speaking BJP’s language. But how much he is going to be useful for the BJP is to be determined in the election,” he said.
Swaminathan said OPS would consolidate votes in favour of the BJP, which hasn’t been able to make inroads into the region yet.
“OPS can bring a consolidation of southern votes. TTV can bring a consolidation of central and southern votes which the EPS faction will not enjoy much,” he explained, adding that OPS will also have an impact in the Kongu (western) region.
“Whoever is with OPS are AIADMK hardcore loyalists who believe that OPS is Jayalalithaa’s successor and injustice was done to him by EPS. They still believe that he is the AIADMK and he will be back,” he said recalling the leadership tussle between Jayalalithaa and Janaki Ramachandran following the death of MGR.
“Though Janaki had the party, the followers of Jayalalithaa were more powerful. I still have a feeling that in the southern belt, OPS has a significant strength enough to damage EPS.”
‘BJP-led NDA alliance’
After the BJP welcomed 12 former AIADMK MLAs into its fold in first week of February, AIADMK senior leader D. Jayakumar said the party’s doors are shut for the BJP even as Union Home Minister Amit Shah said his party’s doors for an alliance was “open”.
Talking about BJP’s silence, political commentator Sumanth C. Raman said the party is still hoping that EPS will come back. “The central leadership is thinking that EPS will be persuaded. That’s why they are issuing statements like doors are open.”
But Narayanan asserted that EPS was unlikely to join hands with BJP for the general election.
“In the last assembly elections, the difference between the DMK and the AiADMK was four percent. EPS thinks if he can bring the minorities to the AIADMK, he will be able to match it,” the former journalist said.
The BJP follows a policy that they are the major partners in the alliance and want to assert their position, he added.
Similarly, Swaminatham asserted that the BJP wants a BJP-led NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu. “Even if they get one or ten MPs, they will form a government in the Centre. But, they need to test how much they have grown. If they can cross 12-15 per cent, that will be a significant growth. OPS, TTV, and Sasikala can contribute to it,” he added.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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