Kamath’s views are in response to the recent market crash, where the S&P BSE Sensex dropped by 1000 points and the Nifty50 narrowly missed a 300-point fall. He explains on Twitter that bull markets typically last around 1 year and 10 months, but the recent four bull runs have exceeded this average by lasting over three years.
In contrast, bear markets are shorter and often conclude within half a year. The analysis shows that the shortest bull market lasted 50 days, while the longest lasted an impressive 1,419 days. On average, bull markets see gains of 101%, while bear markets experience a decline of 33%.
Kamath concludes that longer bull markets are associated with bigger gains, but this trend does not apply to bear markets. He attributes the market decline to Fitch’s credit rating downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+. This is similar to the rating downgrade in 2011 when S&P lowered the US credit rating to AA+.
Note: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of Nikhi Kamath and do not represent the views of Economic Times.