Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Animated Short
“War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
ElectroLeague
Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 22, 2024): Celebrating 100 years in Hollywood this past year, it’s hard to bet against Walt Disney‘s “Once Upon a Studio” and not feel like an assured inclusion in the category. What else will join the endeavor is up for grabs.
I’ve spoken with half a dozen AMPAS voters who love Tal Kantor’s “Letter to a Pig” and Bret Parker’s inspiring true story “Pete,” but it’s unclear how many voters typically take the time to watch all the movies and vote in this category.
And then there’s Oscar-winner David Mullins’ “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” who successfully transforms “Happy Xmas” into a narrative endeavor.
“Humo (Smoke)” is the hail mary selection of the category, as one surprising contender can typically slip through.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
Listed producer credits are not final, and all releases are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Once Upon a Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Dan Abraham, Trent Correy (directors), Yvett Merino, Brad Simonsen (producers) - “Letter to a Pig” (Miyu Distribution)
Tal Kantor (director), Pierre Baussaron, Amit R. Gicelter, Emmanuel-Alain Raynal (producers) - “Pete” (The Criterion Channel)
Bret ‘Brook’ Parker (director), Jake Kaplan (producer) - “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” (ElectroLeague)
Dave Mullins (director), Brad Booker, Sophie Cherry (producers) - “Humo (Smoke)” (3rd Street)
Rita Basulto (director), Mariana Méndez Alejandre, Angelica Lares, Juan J. Medina, Marc Pannia (producers)
Next in Line
- “Boom” (YouTube)
Gabriel Augerai, Romain Augier, Charles Di Cicco, Yannick Jacquin, Laurie Pereira de Figueiredo (directors, producers) - “Pachyderme” (Miyu Distribution)
Stéphanie Clément (director) - “27” (ARTE Mediathek)
Flóra Anna Buda (director), Pierre Baussaron, Péter Benjámin Lukács, Gábor Osváth, Emmanuel-Alain Raynal (producers) - “Wild Summon” (Autour de Minuit Productions)
Karni Arieli, Saul Freed (directors, producers), Jay Woolley (producer) - “Eeva” (Miyu Distribution)
Lucija Mrzljak, Morten Tsinakov (directors), Drasko Ivezic, Kalev Tamm (producers)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized) **
- “Boom”
- “Eeva”
- “Humo (Smoke)”
- “I’m Hip”
- “A Kind of Testament”
- “Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)”
- “Letter to a Pig”
- “Ninety-Five Senses”
- “Once Upon a Studio”
- “Our Uniform”
- “Pachyderme”
- “Pete”
- “27”
- “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
- “Wild Summon”
2022 category winner: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” (Apple TV+) — Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.